全球技术与优化杂志

A Multidisciplinary Approach to Assess the Environmental Vulnerability at Local Scale in Context of Climate Change (Pilot Study in Upper Draa Valley, South Morocco)

Abstract

Ahmed Karmaoui

In this paper, we analyze different aspects and indicators for assessing environmental vulnerability in Upper Draa Valley (pre-Sahara of Morocco). We began this study by realization of a detailed qualitative analysis based on the calculations of 50 indicators of the environmental vulnerability index (EVI), which is developed by Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). EVI results allow us to classify the region as a vulnerable area to climate change and anthropogenic impacts. This results show also that water and population indicators influencing the existence of their oasean ecosystems. To analyze the water vulnerability under social and climatic scenarios, we used WEAP program, that predicting urban water demand and the SDSM model which traces the simulations of future climate by forcing the model with two IPCC greenhouse gases scenarios (A2 and B2). The outputs of the models (EVI, WEAP, SDSM) serves as a basis of the “Integrative Science for Society and the Environment” (ISSE) model developed by ILTER in 2007, leading to a holistic understanding of vulnerability, in a coupled human–environment dimension.