国际经济与管理科学杂志

Determinants of Commodity Prices: Banadir, Lower Shabelle and World Commodity Prices

Abstract

Mustaf Abdullahi Abdirahman

The purpose of this study is to unveil the relationship between commodity prices of Banaadir region, Lower Shabelle, the World food prices, and world agricultural prices between the period of 2000M01 to 2016M12. The study will elucidate if the composite commodity prices of Banaadir region has an association with the world commodity prices (food and agriculture) and Lower Shabelle as well. Johansen cointegration test along with VECM and Pairwise Granger Causality are applied. For the cointegration, trace statistics indicate one cointegrating equation, therefore, there a long run association for about in 4 month equilibrium. VECM supported the existence of long run relationship with a speed of adjustment of 19%. For Granger Causality, the results show, no causality between Lower Shabelle CCPI and Banaadir region CCPI, unidirectional causality between world food index and Banaadir CCPI, unidirectional causality for world agricultural commodity price index and Banadir CCPI, unidirectional causality for world food price index and Lower Shabelle CCPI, unidirectional causality for world agric index and Lower Shabelle CCPI and finally no causality between world food index and agricultural index.