法医学研究杂志

Development Time Variability: Adaptation of Regnieres Method to the Intrinsic Variability of Belgian Lucilia Sericata (Diptera, Calliphoridae) Population

Abstract

M. Gosselin, D. Charabidze, C. Frippiat, B. Bourel, D. Gosset and P. Rasmont

Development times and survivorship of Lucilia sericata (Meigen, 1826) were measured for different constant temperatures. In addition, lower threshold (tL) and thermal constant (Kt) were estimated for a local population. The estimated development time calculated from mean or minimum development time induces a bias that may be reduced using a model of intrinsic variability. In order to quantify variation in emergence rate during the development time, a simulation method was developed by adapting the Régnière’s method. The adapted model allowed accurate prediction of the emergence profile of L. sericata at constant temperature in the linear portion of the development curve. We believe that the application of this method in forensic entomology cases could increase the reliability of the conclusions of an entomological Post Mortem Interval (PMI) estimation.