Mahmoud Moustafa
Current approaches to quantify groundwater depletion due to poor management are water balance and Satellite gravity approaches. However, Water balance technique includes uncertain estimation of its parameter such as Eva transpiration and runoff. Satellite gravity method consumes time and effort. This work proposes using parametric life time techniques in a novel way to predict groundwater saturated thickness depletion. One of the most important issues in the failure theory proposed is to determine the failure point (depletion case). The proposed technique uses depth of water as the net result of recharge/discharge process in the aquifer, to calculate remaining saturated thickness resulted from the applied pumping rates in an area to evaluate the depletion. The two parameters Weibull function and Bayes analysis used to model and analyze the collected data. An illustrative example of the proposed methodology was carried out in a nonrenewable aquifer, no recharge; consequently the continuous decline in water depth is the main criterion to estimate the depletion. The value of the proposed approach is to predict the probable effect of the currently applied pumping rates on the saturated thickness with time based on the obtained remaining saturated thickness data especially on nonrenewable system. The limitation of the suggested approach is that it assumes the applied management practices are constant during the prediction period. Moreover, there is no major climate change. With further studies and applications the suggested method could be promising in prediction in different aspects of hydrology field.
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