Thavrin Manickum*
Aims: A preliminary epidemiological study, based on three months of diagnosed cases and deaths for COVID-19, for the beginning of the pandemic, January to 31 March 2020, was undertaken. Factors that were considered to affect the human-to-human transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus were: spike protein structure, the effect of country average monthly temperature. The study also investigated the median age of the country for the subjects who died and the corresponding case fatality ratio (%CFR).
Findings: The presence of the furin cleavage site, the 10 to 20 fold binding affinity of the spike protein, compared to SARS-CoV, were proposed as possible reasons for the much higher cases noted for COVID-19 compared to the SARS disease. The optimum temperature for viral infection with SARS-CoV-2, for COVID-19, appears to be ± 0.07ºC; viral transmission appears to be maximum at -2ºC up to +12ºC (95.3% of cases); transmission appears to decrease at >12ºC (2.0% of cases). The corresponding optimal temperature for SARS-CoV infection, for SARS disease, appears to be ± 6.25ºC. The average, global % CFR for COVID-19, based on 202 countries, is ± 3.2%. Subjects confirmed with COVID-19, in median age range 40.8 (± 4.7) years, are at higher risk of death. The USA has the highest number of infections (140640) as at 31 March 2020; Italy (11.4%) and Spain (8.6%) have the highest percentages of deaths from COVID-19 per population.
Conclusion: The preliminary study outcomes can be used for further investigation, to confirm the actual ages of subjects who died form COVID-19, to confirm the risk age groups for death from COVID-19, to confirm these preliminary optimal temperature ranges that may potentially assist countries to predict risk of future infection based on monthly temperatures per country.
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