系统发生学与进化生物学杂志

Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Production of Crop Case Study: Maize Crop Production at Adet Werda

Abstract

Aregawi Yemane*, Alehegn Melesse, Ephrem Gidey and Amare Matebu

In the decision making under uncertainty individual decision makers must choose one of a set number of decision alternatives with ample or given information about their outcomes, but most of the times, have not enough knowledge or data about the probabilities of the given state of nature. This paper focuses on the maxi max, maxi min, mini max, regret and realism criteria. The different approaches were analyzed and compared in a case study of variety of maize production volume at Addet Woreda. The main problems that have faced in Adet Wereda the research center do not use alternative production strategies to produce maize variety products. Due to this problem the center may loss the production volume and quality of the product. To solve this problem, different decision making under uncertainty tools were used to optimize the production volume gain per year. The aim of this paper is to introduce decision making under uncertainty to optimize the course of action from the given alternatives on variety of maize production volume at Adet Wereda research center.